In the golden autumn of September, the harvest season, have those in the crypto industry reaped any rewards?
The Aleo project has just experienced two significant events, but just like its low-key privacy features, these events passed quietly, leaving no trace in the market!
In September, the project's token unlock did not show any signs of selling pressure or unlocking in the market;
On September 14, it was listed on Binance Alpha, experiencing a surge before returning to calm.
The Aleo project continues to move forward quietly, with the secondary market remaining lukewarm, and there are no new developments in development and ecology. This silence leaves one wondering whether it is a hidden dragon in the depths or just going with the flow!
Every little movement stirs the hearts of all investors and miners. Faced with the sideways performance of the market, the strategies of going long or short test the mentality of secondary market investors and miners, whether to cash out or hold on, everyone has their own opinions.
In the past month, the overall price of Aleo in the secondary market has slightly increased. The listing on Binance Alpha brought some traffic and buying pressure, with trading volume expanding, and the monthly average line steadily rising, providing a solid price support. The price has been hovering around $0.25 for over a month. The originally scheduled project unlock in September did not bring market selling pressure or new circulation, which is the foundation for price stability. If the project team can maintain the technical foundation and gradually develop the market and ecology, and subsequently launch into a larger circulation market, the overall market performance of Aleo is still predictable.
Since August, the project team has changed the mining algorithm, raising the production threshold for miners, locking in a significant portion of liquidity, which is also an important measure to promote stability in the secondary market. For miners, the following factors determine returns and risks:
1. Price expectations in the secondary market
2. Hashrate decreasing instead of increasing
This year experienced a rapid growth period in hashrate from March to July. Since August, the overall hashrate has stabilized, and even decreased since September, likely due to some small machines gradually going offline, and manufacturers are no longer piling up production capacity. It is estimated that mining machine manufacturers will not increase machine shipments. Considering the expected algorithm changes next year, manufacturers will also assess risks. A stable or even decreasing hashrate is beneficial for the stable output of existing large miners, turning the previously largest variable into a measure.
3. Rapid decline in machine investment costs
After a round of market competition, the prices of the two manufacturers, Ice River and Golden Shell, have dropped to freezing points. Currently, I understand that major products like Ice River AE2 and AE1 are basically out of stock (further confirming the expectation of stable network hashrate). The largest hashrate machine for sale from Golden Shell, AE MAXII, is still being shipped in small quantities, and AE BOXII has also dropped to around a thousand yuan. Based on the market price of AE MAXII, the net breakeven period has reached about 4 months. Considering the machine's lifecycle, with no price fluctuations, the output returns exceed 40%.
Considering the scale of hashrate, price factors, and machine costs, for miners, Aleo mining is still a good investment choice. Compared to mining projects like DOGE and BTC, the longer cycle brings more uncontrollable risks, while Aleo mining has clearer and more defined short-term investment risks and returns.
In the current market environment, for miners and secondary investors with lower risk tolerance, mid to short-term predictable varieties are more suitable. The test of risk and return is a matter of everyone's vision and judgment. For the most diligent miners, is the risk greater than the opportunity, or is the opportunity greater than the risk?